Contentious Politics in Putin's Russia: The December 2011 Protest Outbreak

After a year of hard work, I have finally finished my senior thesis at Williams College, titled Contentious Politics in Putin's Russia: The December 2011 Protest Outbreak. My thesis can be read as a PDF by clicking on the link in the sidebar to the right.

Click on Read More below to see the Table of Contents so that you can jump straight to the parts that interest you most! (Chapter 3 may be the most important)

Opposition Rally Draws Tens of Thousands to Bolotnaya

Coverage:

RFE/RL: Thousands Rally in Russia for 'Bolotnaya' Prisoners

Al Jeezera: Thousands Gather for Russia Opposition Rally


Speech given by Alexey Navalny:

Click on Read More below for the text of his speech translated into English.

Major Opposition Rally Planned for May 6 in Central Moscow

"May 6, Bolotnaya"

On Monday, May 6, the Russian opposition plans to hold a major rally on Bolotnaya Square in central Moscow. At this point, the Moscow mayor's office has approved a rally from 7 to 9:30 pm Moscow time (Monday is a work day) and negotiations over a march to accompany the rally are still up in the air. This protest has been heavily promoted as the biggest opposition event of the spring, and it falls on the anniversary of last year's contentious May 6 rally. Monday's upcoming rally is largely being framed as a show of support for the roughly twenty Russians who are now facing charges, as part of the "Bolotnaya case," related to their participation in last year's May 6 event. Thus, Monday's rally is in many ways the centerpiece of a concerted effort to refocus the opposition movement this spring using the "Bolotnaya case political prisoners" as a central rallying point. 

In my opinion, the attendance and energy at the protest this Monday will be very important to the non-parliamentary opposition going forward. A small turnout on Bolotnaya would send a signal that the Kremlin's moves to suppress and control the unrest that surfaced in December 2011 have largely succeeded, while a large turnout would suggest that the Putin regime is fundamentally unstable in some way that cannot just be patched over. Further, a big event would give opposition leaders some much needed momentum and implicit legitimacy to carry on with their battle against the Putin regime. Of course the Kremlin knows this, and, for example, moved earlier this month to undermine the participation of the group Left Front in the upcoming May 6 rally.

Interestingly, social media barometers paint a somewhat unclear picture at this point of what crowd size to expect on Monday. Click on Read More below to see screen shots of the VKontakte and Facebook pages created to support the May 6 protest. The VK page has a fairly strong 25,000 "members" or "may attend"s, while the Facebook page has a very weak 6,000 "going" or "maybe"s.

Check back here for updates on the May 6 rally!

NEWS UPDATES: Click here for a live stream of the rally 

The Kirovles Trial Begins, Navalny: "This is War"

Alexey Navalny

Tomorrow, April 17th, the trial of Alexey Navalny will begin in the provincial city of Kirov, 500 miles north-east of Moscow. Navalny is accused of embezzling 16 million rubles (~ a half million dollars) worth of logs and could face up to a decade in prison. A showdown with the state has long been looming for the dynamic blogger as he relentlessly exposed corrupt government officials, making one powerful enemy after another. In the last half year, officials have also opened two other cases against Navalny in addition to the Kirovles case, for which he will go on trial tomorrow. The decision to take this case to trial seems to suggest that officials think this is their best play in discrediting Navalny, although Navalny has repeatedly and persuasively dismissed the charges in all the cases against him as ridiculous and simply retaliation for his anti-corruption and opposition activities. Click here to check out all the materials for the Kirovles case (in Russian), and decide for yourself if he is guilty or not. 

In an effort to promote the narrative of his trial as heavy handed political perscetuion, Navalny announced on April 4 on Dozh TV that, "I want to become president [the next election is scheduled for March 2018]. I want to change the life of the country [and ensure that] the millions of people who live in this country, where oil and gas is flowing from the ground, do not live in such poverty and hopeless misery but live normally like people in European countries." As tomorrow's court date looms, Navalny faces what will be a fateful moment in his life. A long prison sentence would be a harsh blow for Navalny in his long running war with the Kremlin. However, the ultimate winner of this war will likely not be determined by the official verdict, but by which side manages to control and craft the narrative of Navalny's persecution in the wider Russian population. If thrown behind bars, will Navalny manage to become a powerful martyr? Or will state-controlled television convince the wider public that Navalny perhaps was guilty of embezzlement as he languishes away in jail, largely forgotten? Navalny at least seems as psychologically ready as possible for his possible jail time; he has already packed a bag with slippers, jogging pants, and sneakers without laces (prison rules). In my opinion, Navalny has a lot of fight left in him, and despite the outcome of the Kirovles battle, his war with the Putin regime is far from over.

Time Magazine reports: The only question that likely remains is Navalny’s sentence. Russian courts have a conviction rate of 99%, but the judge in the city of Kirov will rule on whether to put Navalny on probation or send him to prison. In some sense, prison might be preferable. As the Izvestia journalist pointed out during the interview with investigator Markin, sending Navalny to a labor camp could turn him into Russia’s version of Nelson Mandela...

But even without a prison term attached, a felony conviction will ban Navalny from running for office and revoke his license to practice law. He will have no livelihood, few prospects as a politician and little chance of running for President, as he one day hoped to do. He accepts this prospect with a shrug. “This is a war,” he says. “I also want to take away everything these guys have, and that is a lot more than I have to lose. So why be surprised that they want to take everything from me?”

Check back here this week for updated coverage of Navalny's trial as it unfolds!

NEWS UPDATES: 
Navalny Trial Adjourned For a Week
Navalny Targeted in New Criminal Case
Trial Resumes (April 24): Navalny Calls Embezzlement Case 'Political Revenge'

Witnesses in Navalny Trial Say No Coercion (Trial to Resume May 15)

Trial Resumes (May 15): Witness in Navalny Trial Disputes Earlier Testimony

For additional coverage:

Click the following link for an interesting podcast discussion of the trial by RFE/RL's the Power Vertical blog.

Also, click on Read More below for a timeline of the Kirovles case created by RIA-Novosti.